Bad decisions: Judging the iPhone sight unseen

Siri, what is the dumbest kind of poll?

Siri responds that the dumbest kind of poll is one about buying intentions for a device that hasn’t been revealed yet. Also, there are several near you. Would you like directions to the one on De Anza Boulevard?

The day before Apple’s iPhone reveal this week, USA Today sagely told us “Consumers in no rush to upgrade to latest Apple iPhone, poll finds.” (Tip o’ the antlers to Nick.)

Consumers are also taking a wait-and-see approach to jet packs, teleportation devices and hard-to-discern shapes on the horizon. Is it a deadly pirate ship or a kissing booth manned by Idris Elba? We just don’t know.

USA Today and SurveyMonkey asked an unidentified number of respondents if they were planning on upgrading their iPhones.

The answer, before Apple CEO Tim Cook even takes the stage to sell them to the world Wednesday, is they’re in no rush.

It’s not “before he even takes the stage,” it’s “obviously before he takes the stage” or “admittedly before he takes the stage”. People can’t assess what they don’t know. Or, well, they can try, but they can’t do it well.

The Macalope wonders what the results would be if you polled them after the event. But, then, where’s the fun in asking people to make decisions based on actual information instead asking them to make wild guesses?

In an exclusive SurveyMonkey Audience poll for USA TODAY, only 13 percent of respondents said they plan to upgrade within the next three months, with only 22 percent indicating they’d do so in the next year.

This isn’t just about the iPhone despite the headline. Because if 13 percent of consumers ran out and bought new iPhones in the next three months, Apple would have a blowout quarter. Particularly at these prices. Yow.